Blog Post 25: 2022 Vs 2023, What Is To Come?

Now what? What’s next for this market, now that the crazy, unpredictable, and “just plain weird” housing market of 2022 has ended.

Lets take a look at the insight from an investor/analyst. 

In a compilation of articles from the well known real estate investing platform, Bigger Pockets, Dave Myer recounts 2022 and digs into the potential for 2023.

“Though analysts and many investors will likely be studying the 2022 housing market for years to come, we can finally take a quick look back at what happened this year and infer what might be in store for the year to come.

2022 was a tale of two halves. January through May/June I’m was one type of market, and July through December was a very different market. It’s not possible to determine the shift’s exact date, but it was within this timeframe.

If my premise that the 2023 housing market hinges on affordability is correct, then there are two plausible outcomes for the second half of 2023. 

First, mortgage rates fall, along with modest price declines (less than 10%), combining to increase affordability during the second half of 2023. This would likely cause a bottoming of the housing market in Q1 2024, and we’d start to see growth in the market again come early 2024. 

The other option is affordability doesn’t improve in 2023, probably due to persistently high inflation and mortgage rates. If that happens, the second half of 2023 will look like the first half of 2023, and we’re likely in for a longer correction. In this scenario, we will probably see housing prices drop 10-20% over the next two years, and we won’t see a bottoming of the market until late 2024/early 2025. 

It’s tough to know what will happen, given the amount of economic uncertainty. As of this writing, I think the first scenario is more likely given the recent trends in inflation and bond yields. But both options are reasonably likely at this point. Unfortunately, the next twelve months are cloudy at best.”

Investor and analyst, Dave Myer, makes some interesting observations. It brings us to a important point – there is never a wrong or right time to buy. It is all relative to YOUR personal timeline. If you are ready to invest, now is your time, and there will always be a good deal out there for you! If you are not ready – that’s fine too! We are here to be your guide for the long and short of it.